Covid – 19: Risk Normalization is Part of the Long-Term Remedy
We as humans live in time. What does that have to do with Covid-19 lockdowns, you may be thinking. The short answer: a lot. Given that we exist in time, life reveals itself to us in a linear way, something Covid-19 is showing us in crystal clear fashion. We have real-time data, lightning fast communication, and 21st century computer models programmed by the world’s top minds, and yet, often the best predictor of what will happen tomorrow is what happened today. Policy leaders and experts are groping in the dark almost as much as you and I, constrained by this immutable reality, Time, which carries with itself such uncertainty.
With so much uncertainty, the natural instinct is to hunker in place and wait for this whole thing to blow over. However, the unfortunate reality in this particular case is that hunkering is not sustainable, nor human.
It is unsustainable in large part because the economic effects are so devastating. Millions of people are seeing their livelihoods vanish, and many will struggle simply to avoid starvation. Moreover, in such crises, the poorest are always hardest hit. To just give one example, according to Pew Research, 52% of lower income Americans have someone in their household that has taken a pay cut or lost a job during the pandemic, compared to 43% of all Americans.
From a human standpoint, while the strict lockdown measures are rightly affirming the sacredness of life, life does not simply consist of being alive, but also of having a livelihood. Yes, this includes the economic sphere, but the social sphere is equally important.
All of this would be a completely different story if we knew that the virus would die out within a few weeks. If that were the case, we could support the strict lockdown measures and bear the economic and social suffering in order to reduce the number of deaths. However, the timeline is woefully unclear, and by most estimates, as well as looking at the 1918 Spanish flu as a point of comparison, the virus is likely to linger for many months.
Thus far, I don’t think we have truly accepted this reality. Once it is accepted, and we begin to view everything through a longer term lens, it should be easier for us to move forward with reopening and a semblance of normal life.
How do we do this, though, when the risk of death has paralyzed us so? I think it requires a ‘normalization of risk.’ Risk normalization involves habituating ourselves to the risk associated with a certain thing or activity. It occurs when we judge that the benefits of an activity or lifestyle (the meaning, opportunities or liberty it brings us) outweigh the accompanying risk or danger. We engage in such judgments all the time (although maybe not so consciously), when we do things like drive in cars or fly in airplanes, or swim in the ocean like the lady in the photo above.
It should be said that risk normalization can often bring with it a nonchalant attitude toward the associated danger. This we should avoid. We should continue to be diligent about our hygiene practices and social distancing. However, an elevated risk of sickness and death must become the new normal for the foreseeable future.
If we have learned something from this pandemic, it’s this: little is certain and we are less in control of reality than we think. Simply lifting the lockdowns will almost undoubtedly bring unpredictable effects. Ambiguity will remain thick, and certain problems will linger. For example, many consumers through their own volition may still choose not to frequent restaurants, theaters or airplanes. There will be resurgences in cases as people go back to work. There will be more death.
Nonetheless, we cannot play a game of pin ball, bouncing back and forth between reopenings and widespread lockdowns the minute there are some undesirable effects. Thus, instead of being shocked or surprised when these things happen, we must expect and normalize them; not growing unfeeling toward those lost, but accepting courageously and full of awareness the challenging reality we are being called to live.
